Professor Steve Keen says, Australia headed for recession ‘as soon as next year’

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-29/australia-headed-for-recession-next-year,-professor-keen-says/7674154

Australia’s credit binge will lead to a bust as soon as next year, with house prices to fall between 40 and 70 per cent and unemployment to rise sharply, Professor Steve Keen says.

Well, so says Professor Steve Keen.

A house price fall of 40% would be mammoth. Sydney is the most volatile market due to its strong growth and highest house prices. To wipe 40% of the Sydney market is a huge call. But 70%? Where is that going to happen? Sydney? Or some remote outpost of a defunct mining town in WA?

Anyway, sounds like great buying opportunities lay ahead. Let’s see if some of us can nab a bargain before the Chinese swoop in and buy them all up! (Not that I’m against the Chinese; I’m against them buying our real estate. There are some 200Mn Chinese in their south-east Coastal Economic Zone becoming wealthy. The Chinese will be able to buy all the real estate in Australia and not satisfy their insatiable demand for our real estate. We simply need to restrict the ownership of our real estate to Australians rather than foreigners.)

Professor Keen says that consumer debt has ballooned from 150% of GDP to 210% since the GFC, aided by the Reserve Bank’s low interest rate environment.

He goes on to say that the RBA will be forced to lower rates all the way down to 0%; another big call. He says 3 catalysts for the upcoming recession are the declining terms of trade, the continued fall in investment in the economy and Federal Government’s “stupid” pursuit of a budget surplus.

Really? So Professor Steve Keen is a Keynesian economist then? Believing that government spending can pull an economy out of recession?

I believe that the government’s overspending has a larger role to play in any recession. Keynes himself said that a government deficit aimed at restoring an economy will only bring forward demand and pre-empt a slump in the years soon following. Wayne Swan was informed enough (not smart enough, but someone told him the facts. Probably Ken Henry I guess.) to warn us of a ‘double dip.’

Government spending simply ‘crowds out’ investing. It will cause an inflated spend like Julia Gillard’s school halls. Remember they splurged some $14Bn on that fiasco. Some economists estimate that the inflated demands on the costs of construction were in the order of $2Bn. But that doesn’t matter when you are trying to save the economy, does it? Or is it Wayne Swan’s personal record? He said it wasn’t going to happen on his watch and so he spent like a drunken sailor to make sure it didn’t. But was that really the best for Australia or was he using the Federal Government’s credit card to save his own reputation?

Keynesian spending out of recession has never really worked. Going all the way back to the 1930’s in America under Roosevelt’s ‘New Deal,’ the mother of all Keynesian spends to be sure, simply put America into a decade long slow recovery. So too under Obama who initiated a $787Bn stimulus package in 2009 in an attempt to save the economy from the biggest economic downturn since WWII. Since becoming president, Obama has increased the US national debt from some $9Tn to $18Tn and it is expected to tip $20Tn before the years end. For all this spending, the US has experienced slow recovery from the GFC.

Consider New Zealand that recovered extremely quickly from the GFC and had no stimulus package. Who would have thought that the free market could right an economy quicker than a left wing, Harvard graduate, socialistic presidential Keynesian big government spend?

Stop the over-reaction. This was not ‘torture’

John Heffernan has worked for 33 years in both adult and juvenile detention centres. I think he is qualified to provide an informed opinion on this issue.

“The ABC “Four Corners” program a few nights ago showed just a few seconds of edited footage which has now resulted in politicians from all over the country jumping on the bandwagon and declaring years of torture and cover-up in the management of juveniles offenders in the NT.

As evidence of this “torture” the ABC presented an image of a detainee in a chair with a hood over his head and proclaimed this is the way prisoners of war are treated, not kids.

I’m sorry, but through my experienced eyes I see a juvenile offender, who has obviously been acting out, being provided time out, restrained in an approved chair, with an approved “spit hood” covering his head.”

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/rendezview/stop-the-overreaction-this-was-not-torture/news-story/7d2e9854021b2a9d9589e33599a48f9b

PM pressed to broaden juvenile abuse inquiry

The PM is pressed to broaden the juvenile abuse inquiry without evidentiary support. Angry people with emotional hot-buttons is no basis to broaden the inquiry. Either there is evidence to broaden the inquiry or there is not. If you want it broadened, then present the evidence for consideration and then the PM (and maybe cabinet, if he doesn’t go it alone again!) can consider.

Until then, let’s keep this focused so we can achieve an expedient outcome without every interest group with an axe to grind impeding progress.

To read the full story, visit http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/link/16c511aeaee9872d659c56aee0239716?domain=theaustralian.com.au.

 

Angry boy whose treatment shook nation

Angry boy whose treatment shook nation

To read the full story, visit http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/link/398c2e99d2f9cb84d8b66cf9ce697807?domain=theaustralian.com.au.

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‘Rile those kids, you make matters worse’

Maybe so, but what do you do?

What do the guards do when an angry young man threatens to break his own arm and continually spits at the guards? The guards need to be protected. The inmate needs a spit hood. Is a psychiatric hospital any better equipped? Is he really psycho or just angry and delinquent? The guards have not got time to go away and research the best way to deal with this kind of inmate. He is threatening to self-harm now. His is spitting at the guards now. They have to do something now to arrest this behaviour. Hence the spit hood and the chair. What else can you do?

To read the full story, visit http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/link/b4b0f596e997d30bd955a9e0a9672aa9?domain=theaustralian.com.au.

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Priest’s throat slit in siege in France

Well, another Islamic terrorist attack in France. How many is that now? I’m losing count of all the attacks in just the last 2 weeks.

Admittedly not all have been Islamic terror. Some have been just mass murder committed by depressed asylum seekers from an Islamic nation; a variation on a theme.

To read the full story, visit http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/link/41a8eed733e3ca9cf9fd38846abb9657?domain=theaustralian.com.au.

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Australian debt control worst in G20

About time someone with some real cred said it for what it is. Too late now though; this needed to be said before the 2014 budget or at least some 6 months ago so this government could have had some credible source to pin their debt reduction sales pitch on instead of wimping up to Labor’s threats of cutting spending and derailing the budget like delinquent housemates as they did to Tony in 2014.

To read the full story, visit http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/link/7f7346c0bd02ef8c2b264d0737e29648?domain=theaustralian.com.au.

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Stop blaming West for terror

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/janet-albrechtsen/islamic-terror-frances-benjamin-erbibou-says-stop-blaming-west/news-story/501438bd6ce14fafb6f7fa8d7c29abbc

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Speech denial is totalitarianism

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/nick-cater/denial-of-speech-is-one-step-towards-totalitarianism/news-story/0af4d1a227be69d00dcc8cc179c57c46

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Definition not made in heaven

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/marriage-deserves-a-referendum-not-a-quickie-plebiscite/news-story/7950a41ea79c73fe3ad5513abdd40f45

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